Why I Always Bet On Draws In Soccer/Football Betting
If you know anything about sports betting, soccer (or football as they call it in the UK) is one of the best sports to bet on. And within soccer betting, odds offered on draws often represent better value for money.
For newbies: Draws = Ties = When both teams score the same number of goals within 90 minutes, i.e. 0-0, 1-1, 2-2, and so on.
For those who are new to soccer betting, odds for draws are usually higher than 3.00. This means that if you only bet on draws, you will be profitable in the long run if you are picking the correct games more than one-third of the time.
Most causal bettors don’t bet on draws because:
- They are casual bettors.
- They like watching the sport and don’t like to watch a boring game with no winners.
- Nobody gives a shit what you like.
- Casual bettors are losers because they lose.
I bet because I want to make money. I don’t give two fucks about soccer, football, or any professional sports.
If you’re serious about MAKING MONEY in soccer betting (as opposed to betting “for fun”), you should read this exclusive interview with a professional gambler who makes a living just by betting on draws.
He will tell you the Number One Secret that bookies don’t want you to know.
- How To Win Big On Football Bets In The Long Run – A Look At Some Real Data
- How to beat the bookies at soccer betting (for a more comprehensive look at this topic)
NOW is the time to profit
I’m writing this article now because it is about midway through most of the European football seasons.
This means that we have had half the season so far to observe certain patterns in the results of soccer matches in various major leagues.
This is how you could win $16,000 in the next half of the soccer/football season (Jan to May 2017). And I have made it a hell lot easier for you by compiling the best teams to bet on this season (2016/2017).
Update: By the time you’re reading this, this particular season is already over BUT the things I’m going to say STILL apply. Make sure you read till the end of this article!
Refer to the table, Appendix A, below for the list of teams that have the highest frequencies of draws. (Data current as of 15 January 2017)
Place a fixed stake (e.g. $50) on every single league match that these teams play. If the pattern in the first half of the season persists for the second half, you can expect to win about $16,000 in the coming months.
STEP 3: PROFIT AND ENJOY
Track all your bets with a simple excel spreadsheet or Google Document so you can adjust as you go along. Drop a team if you discover its draw ratio dropping below 33%.
Remember to bookmark this blog, so you can come back and leave a comment letting me know how it goes.
You can scroll horizontally on your mobile device to see all 6 columns of the Table. But if you can’t, click the following links to see the Table:
|League||Team||% of Draws in 2016/2017 Season So Far||Total Amount Bet (assume $50 per bet)||Total Amount Won (assume average odds 3.00)||Total Profits|
|Dutch Erdivisie||Roda JC Kerkrade||10/18|
|French Ligue 1||Saint Etienne||9/20|
|Spanish La Liga||Espanyol||8/18|
|French Ligue 2||Bourg||10/20|
|French Ligue 2||Valenciennes||9/19|
|Italian Serie B||Latina||14/21|
|Italian Serie B||Spezia||10/21|
|Italian Serie B||Trapani||10/21|
|Portugal Primeira Liga||Chaves||9/17|
|Portugal Segunda Liga||Vizela||12/22|
|Portugal Segunda Liga||Gil Vincente||10/22|
|Portugal Segunda Liga||Freamunde||10/22|
|Scotland Premiership||Hamilton Academical||11/21|
|South Africa Premier League||SuperSport United||7/14|
|South Africa First Division||Mthatha Bucks||9/15|
|Israel Leumit League||Maccabi Ahi Nazareth||11/18|
|Iran Pro League||Gostaresh Foolad FC||9/16|
|Iran Azadegan League||Mes Kerman||11/19|
|Iran Azadegan League||Naft Masjed Soleyman FC||10/19|
|Morocco Elite 2||Youssoufia Berrechid||11/15|
|Morocco Elite 2||Rachad Bernoussi||9/15|
|Argentina Primera C||El Porvenir||11/19|
|Argentina Primera C||Dock Sud||10/19|
|Spain Segunda B - Group 3||AE Prat||11/21|
|Spain Segunda B - Group 3||Atletico Levante UD||11/21|
|English Championship||Aston Villa||11/26|
Total Profit in half a season, by betting on these 28 teams every week (there are more of these teams if you want to find) = $15,800
A. I wait till halfway through the season in order to observe patterns and collect statistics. The teams which generate a high frequency of draws vary from season to season. So you can’t use this list of teams every year.
B. Obviously you don’t have to point out to me that the patterns in the first half of the season may not necessarily continue in the second half.
Case in point: Aston Villa in the English Championship had 10 draws in their first 17 games this season. However, they had a change of manager (Steve Bruce in October 2016) and this ratio has dropped significantly, with only 1 draw in their last 9 games.
However you can see that the average draw ratio of the teams listed in the table is above 50%, and you will still be profitable as long as it doesn’t dip below 35-40%.
C. For the sake of calculation, I’m using 3.00 as the average odds. Yes, in some games the odds may be slightly less than 3. For many though, they are higher than 3. I encourage you to use multiple bookmakers to take the best odds for each game. There’s no reason why you shouldn’t register with every single online bookie you can find.
D. For the sake of calculation, I assume a fixed stake in all games. You can exercise your discretion and bet lower-than-usual stakes on games that are the least likely to draw. In any case, they would compensate in the form of higher odds.
If you like this method of betting, you will love the betting strategy in The Strategic Art of Successful Soccer Betting. This easy-to-read PDF ebook has received tremendous reviews from soccer bettors all over the world (six continents, 40+ countries and counting) since it was publicly released in 2016.
Caveat Emptor: The betting strategy laid out in the eBook is not for everyone. It is only for people with balls of steel and heart of a lion. You need to have a healthy bankroll/betting capital and the tough mind of a serious bettor. It’s for the people who don’t just want small wins — they aren’t afraid of big risks in the pursuit of big rewards (40-50% Return-On-Investment).
If you think you’re up for it, learn more at this page.
I’ll see you in the next post.