Developing a Profitable Soccer Betting System
(how to win soccer bets by betting on draws)
Over the past year, I have led an exclusive group of soccer bettors to beat the bookies by betting on draws in various football leagues around the world. European, Asian, South American football leagues… you name it. All we do is bet on draws!
Using my uniquely formulated soccer betting system, we have consistently made unprecedented levels of profits. In terms of ROI, it’s simply CRAZY.
Armed with the single-minded focus of predicting draws, we have developed a truly profitable soccer betting system based entirely on draws. Here’s a glimpse of how we ended a good week of betting with a net profit of $1,308.
In my book, I go into details about why I ONLY bet on draws (1X2 betting) out of dozens of betting options. But suffice to say, you may already have some hints of how profitable it can be — if you have arrived on this page via Google Search. Mathematical David Sumpter goes as far as to say that backing draws was “the main source of [his] profits”, calling it a bias in the market.
So back to the purpose of this article. Along the way, my team and I have discovered certain reliable patterns that you must know if you want to predict draw results in soccer. What are some important “red flags” when it comes to spotting a potential match that is going to end up in a tie?
Here are 6 Top Tips (+ 1 SUPER IMPORTANT CAVEAT) to pay attention to when wagering on the draw.
1) Look at the odds for “Under 2.5 Goals”
Sure, the first thing we all do when looking for potential draws to bet on is to look at the 1X2 odds. The lower the odds for a draw, the higher the possibility of it happening. At least the implied probability according to the bookies. But take into consideration the odds for *Under 2.5 goals* as well. It’s a pretty good signal for low-scoring games.
Statistically, soccer matches that are low-scoring are much more likely to end up in draws. And in the long run, you will increase your winning ratio by focusing on games that are going to have less goals.
2) Focus on those “special” leagues (and teams)
As I have alluded to in the past, certain soccer/football leagues in the world have a higher propensity for draws. Don’t be mistaken, these out-of-the-ordinary leagues (and teams) change every season. So do not treat historical data as the gospel!
In fact, trends may change halfway through the season. Especially after mid-season signings in the January transfer window and managerial changes. Whenever a team goes on an incredible run of draws and then fire the manager, do NOT assume the same trend will continue with a new manager. Always observe what happens in the new coach’s first few games in charge.
3) Look out for weaker teams playing at home
Weak(er) teams playing at home are often happy to settle for a draw. Especially at home grounds that are notoriously difficult for even the strongest of away teams.
Don’t neglect the marginal advantage playing on home soil brings. Whenever you check the current form and league table, make sure you sort the data according to “Home” and “Away” performances. I like to pay attention to their respective Home/Away Goal Difference too.
Do the same when checking out the past results history between the two teams.
4) Look out for mid-table teams at the end of the season
In some lower-tier leagues, teams are notorious for covert (or even blatant) match-fixing. These tend to occur toward the end of the season when there’s nothing left to play for. For teams that are comfortably positioned in mid-table (not fighting for European qualifications or struggling against relegation), the motivation is all but lost. Some of the star players may just be looking to avoid injuries as they have an eye on a high profile transfer in the new season.
The temptation to “throw away” games is even present in certain top flight leagues. Italy tend to have that reputation as being a hot bed for match-fixing.
Regardless of the presence of dirty tricks or manipulation, look out for mid-table teams at the end of the season. Specifically, look out for games between two teams who BOTH have nothing much at stake to play for.
5) Look out for close “Home” and “Away” odds
This may seem obvious enough, but tends to be neglected. Especially useful for beginners who have little to no knowledge of soccer. How do you spot games that will finish all even? Well, look out for matches where the market can’t seem to decide who’s going to come out victorious. In this case, the odds for both teams to win will be pretty close, with neither a Home Win nor Away Win dipping below 2.0.
It’s easy to be overwhelmed by the hundreds of matches on offer daily. So when you are short of time and don’t have hours to spend on match analysis, simply filter out potential draws using this step (time needed: 30 seconds).
6) Have multiple bookmakers!
If you aren’t already aware, bookmakers have a built-in “House Advantage” in their odds. Most bookies give themselves around 5% profit margin. This means that on average, they stand to win about $5 on every $100 that their customers bet.
Having multiple bookmakers allow you to choose the best odds for each game, bringing the House Advantage down to 1.5% or lower. Now you only need to be slightly smarter than the House to turn a profit.
(how to use math to beat the bookies)
At the end of the day, these 6 tips can help novice and experienced bettors alike in figuring out which games to wager a draw on.
BUT BUT BUT… listen up. Research has shown that:
“Knowledge of the game is NOT an advantage in sports gambling.”
I didn’t make that up. That’s the conclusion in a 2013 scientific research paper by Prof. Dannon and Dr. Huberfeld at Israel’s Tel Aviv University.
The scientists proved that “neither betting experience nor knowledge of the details of the game provides an advantage to strategic sports gamblers.”
Wow, what the heck does all this mean?
This actually VALIDATED my belief and didn’t come as a surprise to me at all.
Why? Because no matter how you slice it, at the end of the day sports betting IS as random as it gets. That is why in the long run, a group of “knowledgeable” soccer fans wouldn’t perform any better at predicting/forecasting soccer results than a group of no prior knowledge folks.
And that’s exactly what the scientific study found.
What you need is this: A mathematical-based staking system that provides a smart risk management strategy in order to be successful in the soccer prediction business. That’s if you’re serious about beating the bookies in the long-term. Don’t bother if you just want to treat soccer betting as a little flutter here and there for your enjoyment — there’s perfectly fine too.
Why is precisely why I churned out 7 years of hard data and statistics from my personal soccer betting experience, and transformed them into a disciplined staking system. This allows us to place each bet with mathematical precision and ultimately enjoy a very healthy ROI on our betting capital.
Be warned: You need a healthy mindset, bankroll, and some guts to succeed with my strategic betting system. It’s definitely not for everyone, even though the rewards can be huge.
Many people have executed our betting strategy successfully and we play this soccer betting system together as a team.
All bettors in our exclusive group get access to my daily picks (draw selections).
Conclusion/Pour Conclure/En Conclusión
Betting on draws gives you tremendous leverage that can be used to develop a disciplined betting strategy.
The reason I formulated a betting system around this is to beat the bookies. While bookies are known to have “House Advantage” when it comes to any form of gambling or sports betting, they are notoriously bad at predicting draws. This gives ordinary football punters something to exploit.
However, ordinary bettors HATE betting on draws (given the boring outcome they have to pray for) and this means that draw odds are often not priced correctly. When odds are overpriced, it leads to the presence of “Value Bets” and is definitely something for serious bettors to take advantage of.
Happy Betting & I’ll see you on the other side.