From the desk of the world-famous top soccer betting team (Team Diego)…
UEFA Euro 2020 Betting Tips – How I’m Planning To Profit From This Tournament
With the 2020 UEFA European Football Championship (Euro 2020) kicking off across 11 locations in Europe soon, it’s timely to update/revive this blog for a bit.
From 11 June 2021 to 11 July 2021, 24 national teams will battle to be crowned the new Kings of Europe. Tens of millions of soccer bettors and football pundits around the globe will also battle to beat the bookies. Sad to say, the vast majority will end up poorer after the month-long competition.
For regular readers and followers – you guys are aware we make most of our soccer betting profits from betting on draws. Backing draws have been the most lucrative betting “hack” I’ve discovered in my decade-long career as a professional sports gambler.
However – after more than a year of this global garbage situation (known as corona), I’ve decided to look into having a little fun with the Euros. Hence, I’ve set aside a sizable amount of “play money” for some fun bets this upcoming tournament.
For those who are new here, *fun bets* are bets not expected to turn a profit (unlike our normal bread and butter a.k.a betting on bore draws/stalemates), but entirely for fun (to enhance viewing pleasure during the Euros). If I manage to make a profit, it’s a bonus and I’ll either –
- donate 100% of the profits to charity, or
- have giveaways on our Telegram Channel (sending cash to random people who are following in the channel)
Sounds good? Join our free Telegram Channel here.
So with Euro 2020 beginning Friday, 11 June, in Rome, it’s time to think of a simple betting strategy to follow.
Let’s keep it simple and stick to 1X2 bets.
My initial thoughts on betting during Euro 2020
In a once-every-4-years tournament like this, there are bound to be plenty of upsets. My instinct is – backing favorites wouldn’t be a wise thing. So we’re left with:
- Betting on Draws
- Betting on the Underdogs
In a mega event like the Euros, the influx of tens of millions of new/recreational bettors during this crazy month will very likely mess up all of the bookmakers’ odds. Enormous market failure will be there for smart bettors to exploit and potentially profit from.
Add national loyalties and irrational emotions (exuberance) into the mix… and you get the perfect storm of wrongly priced odds.
Market distortion = valuable opportunity!
Thus, my gut feeling is that there will be great value betting on the underdogs to take advantage of the many upsets and unexpected results.
Well… what about draws?
As the Pioneer of Draw Betting (and someone who bets on draws for a living), I know that draws are *NOT* that common in international games. Furthermore, in international fixtures that regularly feature draws – you can find more of them in Africa and South America (BTW, the 2021 Copa America will run simultaneously with Euro 2020). Not so much in European football.
So, my guess is – while there could be a place for betting on draws (especially later on in the competition, i.e. the final group stage games in situations where one point each would suit both teams, and during the play-offs where games are likely to go into extra-time), backing underdogs with HUGE ODDS would make more sense.
How to profit from the Euros – testing my hypothesis
Here comes the fun part.
I did a mathematical simulation using the results of the previous edition of the tournament, Euro 2016, and here is the math.
- The “favorites” won 21 times out of 51 matches, at an average odds of 1.74. This would give us a LOSS of 14.46 units if backing the favorites every game throughout the competition.
- Draws happened 16 times out of 51 matches, at an average odds of 3.34. This would give us a small PROFIT of 2.44 units if backing the draw every game throughout the competition.
- The “underdogs” won 14 times out of 51 matches, at an average odds of 4.55. This would give us a huge PROFIT of 12.7 units (or 25% ROI) if backing the underdogs every game throughout the competition.
In short – sticking with the underdogs would pay off handsomely (at least in the case of Euro 2016) as betting on them with a fixed stake of $1,000 would give us $12,700 profit.
Side note: if you add up the 3 results (12.7 units + 2.44 units – 14.46 units) – you actually get a negligible 0.68 units of profits. Just from betting on all 3 outcomes on all 51 games, you would technically be profitable. Talk about market odds inefficiency. Haha.
Should the “Underdog Strategy” change for the play-offs vs group stage?
Interestingly, in the case of Euro 2016, I did not find any significant difference between the two stages of the tournament.
For the math geeks who would like a further breakdown of the 12.7 units profit:
- During the group stage, there were 11 underdog victories from 36 matches, at an average odds of 4.05. Giving us a hypothetical 8.6 units profit.
- During the play-offs, there were 3 underdog victories from 15 matches, at an average odds of 6.37. Giving us a hypothetical 4.1 units profit.
Notes and Caveats (Important!)
(A) Determining favorites and underdogs was done using the Closing Odds on Bet365, for convenience purposes. In some instances between closely-matched teams, the team that began as underdogs actually became the favorites by kick-off.
(B) Should you bet early or wait closer to kick-off?
From the limited sample (of 14 underdog victories), I observed some of the odds for underdogs rose significantly closer to kick-off, while some dropped significantly closer to kick-off. So for the question of whether you’re better off betting early or waiting – I find this inconclusive.
(C) Finally, obvious caveat – we literally only have 1 data point to carry out simulations of my hypothesis.
This is because the European Football Championship format was recently changed in 2016 to allow for an expanded tournament. Instead of 4 groups of 4 teams, we now have 6 groups of 4 teams (with several of the best third-placed teams qualifying for the play-offs).
**This change could also explain why the underdogs would give the big boys a run for their money as they know they now have a chance to progress even if there are two other much stronger teams in the group.
Conclusion + How To Get Free Betting Tips
Will Euro 2020 follow in the footsteps of the previous tournament and witness plenty of upsets? There’s only one way to know. Just for fun, I am planning to stake $1,000 on the underdogs for every one of the 51 games.
For newer readers, you might be interested to learn why betting on draws is ultimately the best soccer betting strategy to profit in the long run – check out this classic article about football draw betting.
Also, be sure to join us on Telegram (over 2,000 people as of now) for more football betting tips. The Official Team Diego Telegram Channel is where I am most active.
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Here’s to many more years of winning. LET’S BEAT THE BOOKIES!