Dissecting The Best World Cup Betting Tips, Predictions, And Strategies For Big Profits
With the 2022 FIFA World Cup kicking off in Qatar soon, we at Team Diego HQ (professional soccer bettors for the past 6 years) have been thinking long and hard about how to profit from this year’s tournament.
From 20 November to 18 December 2022, millions of football fans around the world will be hoping to beat the bookies. Sadly, more than 95% will end up poorer. Alas, this is how it’s intended – just as only 1 out of 32 nations can emerge victorious, the overwhelming majority of soccer punters will fall short.
For regular readers of this blog, you guys know that I am a draw specialist. I only bet on draws and that’s how my team and I have been profiting from professional soccer betting the past 6 years (and counting).
The good news is we think we have found a way to beat the odds even during a tournament like the FIFA World Cup (albeit a little differently from what we usually do).
Bear with me – the juicy bits (our top predictions & the 4 very profitable World Cup betting strategies that we’ve uncovered) will arrive further down this article!
FIFA World Cup 2022 – Preview
The desert may be barren and the air may be dry but the conditions for making a killing out of soccer betting have never been more fertile.
Major international competitions present a unique opportunity to take advantage of the outpouring of passionate, irrational recreational betting (that helps to greatly distort the odds in the betting markets). And international competitions don’t get any bigger than the FIFA World Cup!
Given the influx of bets, bookmakers are bound to be caught napping and market irregularities are bound to occur.
So read on till the end for our Ultimate Guide to the FIFA World Cup 2022…
The upcoming World Cup will certainly not be short of talent. No doubt some may lament the absence of Mo Salah (Egypt) and the high quality Italian team.
But with stars such as Lionel Messi (Argentina), Cristiano Ronaldo (Portugal), Robert Lewandowski (Poland), Neymar (Brazil), and Son Heung-min (South Korea) – this is shaping up to be one of the most exciting World Cups we have ever seen.
Especially when this is likely to be the last ever World Cup for many of the stars in the aforementioned list.
Interesting Stats & Historical Facts – FIFA World Cup
Is South America’s dominance fading?
Before the 21st century, South America and Europe each produced 8 World Cup Winners. However, since the turn of this century, Europe has won 4 out of 5 World Cups!!
Overall, Brazil has won the most times (5), with Germany and Italy in close second (4 trophies each).
Note: Italy has failed to qualify for the 2022 World Cup.
In terms of the number of trophies, only Germany has the opportunity to catch up with Brazil this year. Or will Brazil/Argentina turn the tide and end the South American drought? Or perhaps… it’s coming home to England?
Potential runner-ups… or winners?
The honour of being the worst performers in the World Cup Final probably belongs to the Netherlands (3 appearances in the World Cup Final, lost all).
Other noteworthy nations whose nerves tend to get to them, causing them to slip up at the final hurdle include Germany (4 wins and 4 losses in 8 Final Appearances) and Argentina (2 wins and 3 losses in 5 Final Appearances).
If any of these countries make it to the Final, the pressure will be tremendous. Especially if they had been runner-ups in recent memory. This added pressure may not be a bad thing though. For example, 2018 Winners France had the added motivation of banishing the memory of losing in the 2006 Final. Same goes for 2002 Winners Brazil who were runner-ups in 1998.
Luck favours those who try and try again. So it could be a smart counter-intuitive move to back Croatia/Argentina/Netherlands (the 3 most recent runner-ups) if they make it to the Final!
World Cup Final to go to extra-time?
Since the turn of the century, 3 of the last 5 World Cup Finals went to extra-time or penalties – making the DRAW a very good bet for the finale (well, what do we know about draws…)
The World Cup Final has in recent years also been low-scoring events (during regulation time). Goals are a rarity as 4 out of the last 5 World Cup Finals have seen Under 2.5 goals. Only 2 out of 5 saw both teams scoring (Both Team To Score market).
Goals, goals, and more goals?
Overall though – the previous 2 tournaments featured roughly the same number of goals (169 and 171), with the average goals scored per game well over 2.5.
Draws or half-time draws?
While draws may not be a regular occurrence at football’s marquee event, we have seen more than half of games ending in half-time draws over the last 3 tournaments.
The French to win back-to-back?
If reigning champions France were to successfully defend their title, they would only be the 3rd nation in history to do so, after Brazil (1958 & 1962) and Italy (1934 & 1938).
The fact that no team in modern history has been able to achieve this feat is testament to the level of competition we have today!
World Cup Betting Tips: FOUR PROFITABLE STRATEGIES (Revisiting Our Strategies From 4 Years Ago…)
Now here’s the part you’ve been waiting for. Pay attention if you want to beat the bookies and profit from World Cup 2022.
As a brief summary, we came out with 4 hypotheses during the previous World Cup on how to profit during such a tournament.
During the group stage – bet on over 2.5 goals, and bet on the underdogs to win.
During the play-offs – bet on draws, and bet on under 2.5 goals.
We now are able to test our hypotheses against the actual results of the previous two competitions (World Cup 2018 and 2014). This will give us a sample size of over 100+ matches. In a short moment, you will see for yourself whether they work to deliver profits.
Let’s go into a bit more details below.
Strategy 1 (Group Stage):
During the group stages, games are more free-flowing and we can expect many goals.
As such, betting on OVER 2.5 GOALS could be a great strategy. At least for the group stages, we will see many games that involve teams with a big gap in footballing standards. The goals will come.
Strategy 2 (Group Stage):
Fairy tales of giant killers and David versus Goliath upsets tend to be a common theme in many tournaments.
By taking advantage of the huge odds given by the bookies, we should be able to ultimately profit if we BACK THE UNDERDOGS TO WIN.
In short, we will expect to lose our bets most of the time. But the few bets we win will more than offset our losses due to their high odds.
Strategy 3 (Play-Offs):
In the knock-out phase, teams are more evenly matched AND approach each game more cautiously. This is the time to BET ON DRAW.
Some punters will actually forget that they can actually bet on draw (because you’re betting on the score during regulation time, NOT including anything that happens in extra-time or penalties).
Remember – the players on the pitch are aware that they do NOT have to win in the first 90 minutes. Their hopes of winning the World Cup are still alive as long as they DO NOT LOSE during regulation time.
Strategy 4 (Play-Offs):
Whenever I expect draws to occur, I also expect games to finish with UNDER 2.5 GOALS. Statistically, low scoring matches and draws go hand-in-hand.
With teams adopting a more conservative and defensive style of play at this stage, games should be more keenly contested with fewer goals hitting the back of the net now.
RESULTS (ALL 4 Strategies Were Profitable In 2014 AND 2018)
With a sample size of 128 matches across the past 2 tournaments, here are the results of our 4 very profitable betting strategies… (We’re using a fixed stake where we bet 1 unit on every match with the various strategies.)
1st Strategy: 15.01 units profit (2014) + 4.70 units profit (2018)
- Conclusion: Betting on OVER 2.5 GOALS during the Group Stage would give you a total of 19.71 units of profit over the last 2 World Cups.
2nd Strategy: 10.45 units profit (2014) + 22.75 units profit (2018)
- Conclusion: Betting on the UNDERDOGS TO WIN during the Group Stage would give you a total of 33.20 units of profit over the last 2 World Cups.
3rd Strategy: 15.95 units profit (2014) + 0.79 units profit (2018)
- Conclusion: Betting on DRAW during the Play-Offs would give you a total of 16.74 units of profit over the last 2 World Cups.
4th Strategy: 5.63 units profit (2014) + 2.89 units profit (2018)
- Conclusion: Betting on UNDER 2.5 GOALS during the Play-Offs would give you a total of 8.52 units of profit over the last 2 World Cups.
FIFA World Cup 2022: The Contenders – Top Picks & Predictions
A few months before the tournament kicks off, we ran an essay contest over on our Team Diego Telegram Channel (that’s why you should join if you haven’t, since there will be many more contests and giveaways coming up).
Here’s a very interesting entry we received…
Our favorite to win is Argentina.
Firstly, because of Lionel Messi. He came close enough in 2014 but this might be his last stone in the pouch and we all expect him to give it his all. And Messi’s all is a lot!
Next, Argentina is a formidable team. They sit comfortably in third place on the FIFA World Rankings at the moment. And third is where you want to be when heading into the World Cup. Not first, with the added pressure of winning the competition by virtue of your position, yet confident that you have the credentials to make a run for it.
Lastly, they are the reigning Copa America champions and are enjoying one of the longest unbeaten international runs.
Portugal doesn’t have a lot of credentials on paper, at least not many impressive ones like other contenders. In fact, their qualification was in doubt at some point. But, you see, the same could have been said of them during Euro 2016.
The common element: Cristiano Ronaldo.
He puts Portugal here for the same reason Messi does Argentina; to place the final feather in his cap. And the fact that he has 2 less Ballon d’Ors than the Argentinian may actually give him more motivation to go out with a big bang this December.
If there’s anything that five Champions League titles and one Euro have taught us is to never underestimate the drive and determination of CR7.
Lastly – Germany. They have a lot to prove from their early exit at the previous outing but more importantly, they have had an excellent run of form, characterized by some ruthless goal-scoring, under the coaching of Hansi Flick who seems to have carried his philosophy from Bayern Munich.
Let’s not forget he left the German giants at their peak to focus on national duties, and we can’t think of a higher national duty than the World Cup, football-speaking. Simply put, he means business.
Ambition – The Running Theme
By now, you should have noticed a running theme from our three favorites and that is personal ambition. That will be a big part of this competition.
What is it that the quote says? Wars are won by armies but battles are won by soldiers (and generals, in the case of Hansi Flick)?
But there is something to be said about the ambitions of teams as well – apart from the unquestionable prestige of the cup itself, many traditional contenders will be keen to seal this last “elite” title before it is “opened up to the rest of the world” in its larger 48-team format as from the 2026 edition.
Thus, the usual suspects (Brazil, Spain, France etc) shouldn’t be underestimated.
What Are The Bookies Saying?
(World Cup Winner Betting Odds)
According to the bookmakers’ odds, the top 9 favorites are ranked as follows, with their respective best available odds shown in the brackets:
- Brazil (6.2)
- France (7.5)
- England (8.5)
- Spain (9.8)
- Argentina (10)
- Germany (12)
- Portugal (17)
- Netherlands (17)
- Belgium (18)
We fancy the odds Argentina and Germany are currently priced at.
For a long-shot bet, you can even try Switzerland (101) or South Korea (401).
According to Oddschecker, the most popular bet is on England – garnering almost a quarter of all bets.
As we like to say – The influx of millions of recreational bettors during this tournament will likely mess up all of the bookmakers’ odds. It will be a nightmare looking at the odds because they will be subjected to TREMENDOUS MARKET FAILURE.
Hobbyist punters are not professionals – people are going to bet with emotions and national loyalties, not proper analysis of actual probabilities.
World Cup – Golden Boot (Top Goalscorer) Betting Odds
As for the Golden Boot award, the top 10 favorites are ranked as follows, with their respective best available odds shown in the brackets:
- Harry Kane, England (9)
- Kylian Mbappe, France (11)
- Karim Benzema, France (13)
- Lionel Messi, Argentina (15)
- Neymar, Brazil (17)
- Cristiano Ronaldo, Portugal (17)
- Romelu Lukaku, Belgium (19)
- Jose Vinicius Junior, Brazil (26)
- Lautaro Martinez, Argentina (29)
- Memphis Depay, Netherlands (29)
Interestingly, the top 2 most popular bets are currently Martinez and Messi – illustrating the attacking prowess of the Argentinian team.
The youngest on the list is Vinicius Junior, who will just be 22 years old at the tournament! However, we would go for someone more experienced and for this market, we back England captain Harry Kane to bag the top goalscorer award once again.
P/S: If you’re new here, be sure to join 2,000+ other football bettors like yourself in our free Telegram Channel over here for more soccer betting tips and all things money-making.
Just as we have found 4 valuable strategies in this blog article that could potentially provide us with *value bets* during the World Cup – we at Team Diego have specialized in *betting on draws* for the past 6 years. This allows us to make anywhere from $2,000 to $10,000 a month, just by betting on the draw.
World Cup or not, we always find a way to beat the bookies and deliver mind-blowing results. As long as you approach soccer betting in a very systematic manner, using data to your advantage. Because that’s the only way to beat the bookies in the long run and make serious money.
See you guys in Qatar! ENJOY WINNING!