Subject: Double Chance Betting Strategy in Soccer – Huge Profits with Lower Risks
I have written extensively on this blog about betting on draws in soccer games. Since 2016, we have been enjoying tremendous profits betting purely on draws, and nothing else.
This post serves as an update to my betting system. Before I begin, due credit must be given to one of my Australian clients in the team, Anson, for suggesting this idea to me.
Recap of the Original Betting System that has helped us beat the bookies for the past 2 years
For the benefit of those who are new here, let me briefly explain our soccer draw betting system.
This is what an average bettor in our team does: for someone with a small to moderate bankroll, he starts with $20 bets.
1. Place a $20 bet on DRAW on a game that is likely to end in a draw (odds are about 3.00+ on average)
2a. If you win the bet, good. Continue doing the same on the next game.
2b. If you lose the bet, multiply your stake by 1.5 (so in this case, you will bet [$20 X 1.5] = $30 on DRAW for the next game). Keep doing this (increasing your betting amount by 1.5X if you lose), until you win a DRAW.
3. Once you have won, return to your initial stake for the following game (in this case you start betting $20 again).
After you have understood, let’s move on to the modifications to that original system.
Introduction to Double Chance betting
In any 90-minute soccer match, there are 3 possible outcomes: Home Win, Draw, or Away Win.
A double chance bet gives us two chances to win a bet, as we can pick 2 out of the 3 possible outcomes.
For the purposes of our draw-focused betting system, this means we can bet either “home team and draw” or “away team and draw”.
Choose any game in flashscore.com, click on “Odds Comparison” and the “DC” tab.
“1X” refers to “home team and draw”.
“X2” refers to “away team and draw”.
Double Chance Strategy For Soccer Betting
Now here comes the interesting part.
We are going to combine the concepts of our original draw betting system with a double chance strategy.
This is exactly how we are going to proceed.
PART 1: Instead of betting on draws, we will first start with a double chance bet. By default, it will be “favorite and draw”. If the home team is the favorite to win, our bet will be on “1X”. If the away team is the favorite to win, our bet will be on “X2”.
The odds will fall between 1.3 to 1.5, due to the competitive nature of the games we pick. Remember, we only bet on games that are expected to be closely contested by teams of similar strength i.e. same principle as our original draw betting system. (We won’t bet on one-sided games, e.g. Barcelona versus Shitty Team, as odds for “Barcelona and draw” will be less than 1.3)
PART 2A: If we win our double chance bet, we will repeat Part 1 (continue betting on double chance).
PART 2B: We lost our double chance bet. For example, we bet on “X2” but the home team won 1-0. Shit! Okay. For the next game, we will bet on draw. Odds will be around 3.10 on average. From this point onward, we will keep betting on draw until we win the bet. Once we have won the bet, we will return to Part 1 (bet on double chance again) and repeat the cycle.
Staking System (VERY IMPORTANT)
Just like in our original draw betting system, the staking system is the key to ensuring we will always be maintaining our profitability and beating the bookies!
I’m going to show you the staking progression in the Double Chance (DC) system in comparison to the original system.
These are the amounts I will bet, in the unfortunate scenario of losing 5 bets in a row. As usual, my advice is TO BE CONSERVATIVE and NOT BE GREEDY.
Remember, after winning the 6th game, we revert to our initial betting amount. For DC system, this would be $50 (and we return to betting on double chance).
How to Derive the Staking Amounts
In our original system where we are only betting on draws, it was very straightforward. After each loss, we multiply our stake by 1.5X. We continue this until we win our bet.
In our new DC system, we have to start with a higher amount as odds for DC is about 1.4 on average (compared to about 3.1 for draws).
However, if we lose Game 1, we will LOWER our stake in Game 2 as we are now betting on draw with odds 3+.
The stake for Game 3 (if we lose Game 2 too) will be the same as Game 1, and from there we mimic the original system of multiplying our stake 1.5X until we win our bet.
The staking amounts are designed to ensure a FIXED PROFIT, whether you win at Game 1, Game 4 or Game 6.
This is NET PROFIT, which means no matter when you get the win, you will make that profit on top of recovering all the previous losses.
In our original system, the fixed profit for an average bettor starting with $20 is about $40+.
In our new DC system, the fixed profit for an average bettor starting with $50 is about $20+.
“Hold on, Diego, you mean we will only be making HALF our usual profits with your new system? You suck!”
My response: “Don’t forget, homie, we will also win MORE often now.”
The Advantages of Double Chance Betting Strategy
1) We will be winning more often, thereby allowing us to be more positive mentally.
2) We will be in a better frame of mind if we can reduce the length of consecutive losses. This will be less daunting for guys who are new to our system. In the long run, it will help us preserve our bankroll by reducing the chances of a freak series of losses.
3) During periods of consecutive losses, there is always a pressure to bet on every single game because every game is extremely crucial. Those of us who have been doing the system for the past few years know the drill: we have to bet round the clock since soccer games happen around the world at all hours of the day. On average we bet between 3 to 6 games every day. This means some of us may need to set an alarm to wake up in the middle of the night, check the score and bet on the next game.
With the new system, we will be winning more often, making each game less critical. Of course there will still be times when we go on a long run of losses. When that happens, we have to monitor the games closely and perhaps exercise the “cash-out option” during live betting when appropriate (e.g. 2-2 scoreline in the 85th min and we wanna guarantee a win).
Let’s talk about ACTUAL DATA
As usual, I have to see actual data to convince myself that this would be a good system.
I took the daily betting picks that I’ve given to my team over the past few months and ran a simulation.
Yes, your monthly profits may decrease slightly. In some cases, the difference is negligible. In the worst case scenario, expect up to a 20-30% drop in net profits.
Take November 2017’s data for example, the average member of our team who started with an initial stake of $20 made a cool net profit of $2,247. This was from 53 draws out of 127 picks (42% win rate) following the original system.
With the new DC system, the win rate would be 65% (82 wins from 127 picks). The average odds of all the 65 Double Chance wins would be 1.4. The average odds of all the 17 draw wins would be 3.1. Assuming an initial stake of $50, the new system would yield about $1,640 in net profits for that month.
Thus, a 20-30% reduction in net profits is probably the worst case scenario you can expect.
Conclusion: Which system should I stick to?
All forms of gambling carry risks. As with everything else, it’s a deeply personal choice. I have never treated gambling as a “get rich quick” scheme and never marketed my programs as such. Soccer betting to me is for the thrills, because I know there are other ways to make serious money.
With that said, the 2 methods are pretty similar, especially after you have lost the first game and proceed to Game 2 and beyond.
The main benefit is that because of the Double Chance, the times when we are required to proceed to Game 2 and beyond will be HALVED.
If you have yet to join the world’s most profitable soccer betting team, learn how our top members make as much as $100,000 a year betting on draws here.
Have a spectacular day.